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MP vs. LYSDY: Which Non-China Rare-Earth Stock Has More Upside?
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Key Takeaways
MP Materials posted 84% revenue growth on higher NdPr output in Q2 but remains weighed down by rising costs.
Lynas achieved its first commercial Heavy Rare Earths production outside China in decades.
Lynas outpaced MP with a 63.5% stock gain and upward earnings estimate revisions in recent months.
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are two leading players in the global rare earth supply chain, crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. Rare earth stocks have recently come under renewed investor attention amid the U.S.-China tensions, as China accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing capacity. Both companies are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
The United States and Australia have recently signed a landmark Critical Minerals Framework, with both governments committing to invest more than $3 billion together in critical mineral projects in the next six months.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $12.36 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $11.98 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is which stock one should put their bets on - MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America. The company has also begun commercial production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and trial production of automotive-grade sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets at its Fort Worth, TX, facility. It is poised to produce approximately 1,000 metric tons of finished NdFeB magnets per year.
In the second quarter of 2025, MP Materials’ revenues surged 84% year over year to $57.4 million. The company produced 597 metric tons of NdPr, a 119% increase from the year-ago quarter. Rare earth oxides (REO) production increased 45% to 13,145 metric tons on higher recoveries from the continued implementation of Upstream 60K optimizations.
Despite the improvement in revenues, higher production costs and selling, general and administrative expenses led to a second-quarter loss of 13 cents, wider than the loss of 17 cents in the second quarter of 2024. The company’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to lead to higher costs this year and likely lead to a full-year loss.
In July, MP Materials secured a landmark deal with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to fast-track the development of a fully integrated domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. The deal consists of a comprehensive, long-term package of commitments from the DoD, including equity investments, loan financing, purchase commitments and pricing support.
Backed by DoD’s investments, MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons and cater to both the defense and commercial sectors. MP also expects to extend the lifespan of Mountain Pass through further exploration and enhanced processing.
The Case for Lynas
Lynas has built a reputation as an environmentally responsible producer of rare earth materials, serving global manufacturing supply chains across East Asia, Europe and North America. The company ensures traceability from mine to finished product through its fully integrated and secure supply chain. At the core of its operations is its high-grade, long-life Mt Weld mine in Western Australia.
Concentrates sourced from Mt Weld are processed at its Rare Earths Processing Facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan, Malaysia. Lynas has an expenditure-based contract with the U.S. DoD for the construction of a Heavy Rare Earths processing facility at Seadrift, TX.
Lynas achieved a milestone earlier this year with the production of Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) and Terbium Oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated Heavy Rare Earths (HRE) for Lynas, and also the first production outside China in decades.
Per its last reported results, Lynas produced 6,558 tons of NdPr in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), a 16% year-over-year increase, reflecting its optimized production strategy. REO production was 10,462 tons, down 4% year over year.
Lynas’ revenues in fiscal 2025 were up 20% to AUD 556.5 million ($362 million) as a result of increased NdPr production and sales. EBITDA was down 23% to AUD 101.2 million ($65.9 million).
The Lynas 2025 growth initiative (launched in 2019), designed to deliver increased capacity, enhanced efficiency and improved sustainability across its global operations, has essentially been completed. This included the production of separated HRE at Lynas Malaysia and the completion of the construction phase of the Mt Weld expansion project. The company also ramped up the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility and Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) reception facilities in Malaysia and finalized projects in Solvent Extraction and Product Finishing to deliver 10.5 kt p.a. of nameplate finished NdPr capacity.
With the conclusion of major capital projects, Lynas is now embarking on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity, and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 23 cents per share, narrower than the loss of 44 cents in fiscal 2024. The estimate for fiscal 2026 for MP Materials is pegged at earnings of 92 cents.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is 18 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 29 cents indicates 61% year-over-year growth.
Both the estimates for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Meanwhile, Lynas’ fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 estimates have moved up in the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP & LYSDY: Price Performance & Valuation
In the past three months, MP Materials stock has gained 13.4% compared with Lynas’ 63.5% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 20.49X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.45X. Lynas is also trading higher than the industry, but at a lower forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 19.44X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
MP and LYSDY stocks offer long-term strategic potential in the promising rare earth space. MP has been reporting upbeat production numbers and making investments in boosting production capacity, but elevated costs will continue to pressure earnings, with the current year likely ending in a loss. Meanwhile, Lynas appears better positioned, supported by strong growth projections and upward estimate revisions. Lynas is also expected to be a key beneficiary of the US-Australia deal, which might fast-track its growth plans.
Lynas has outperformed MP in terms of share price gains and offers a cheaper valuation. Overall, Lynas represents the more compelling buy for investors seeking exposure to rare earths.
Lynas currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) while MP Materials has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Image: Bigstock
MP vs. LYSDY: Which Non-China Rare-Earth Stock Has More Upside?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are two leading players in the global rare earth supply chain, crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. Rare earth stocks have recently come under renewed investor attention amid the U.S.-China tensions, as China accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing capacity. Both companies are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
The United States and Australia have recently signed a landmark Critical Minerals Framework, with both governments committing to invest more than $3 billion together in critical mineral projects in the next six months.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $12.36 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $11.98 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is which stock one should put their bets on - MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America. The company has also begun commercial production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and trial production of automotive-grade sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets at its Fort Worth, TX, facility. It is poised to produce approximately 1,000 metric tons of finished NdFeB magnets per year.
In the second quarter of 2025, MP Materials’ revenues surged 84% year over year to $57.4 million. The company produced 597 metric tons of NdPr, a 119% increase from the year-ago quarter. Rare earth oxides (REO) production increased 45% to 13,145 metric tons on higher recoveries from the continued implementation of Upstream 60K optimizations.
Despite the improvement in revenues, higher production costs and selling, general and administrative expenses led to a second-quarter loss of 13 cents, wider than the loss of 17 cents in the second quarter of 2024. The company’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to lead to higher costs this year and likely lead to a full-year loss.
In July, MP Materials secured a landmark deal with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to fast-track the development of a fully integrated domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. The deal consists of a comprehensive, long-term package of commitments from the DoD, including equity investments, loan financing, purchase commitments and pricing support.
Backed by DoD’s investments, MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons and cater to both the defense and commercial sectors. MP also expects to extend the lifespan of Mountain Pass through further exploration and enhanced processing.
The Case for Lynas
Lynas has built a reputation as an environmentally responsible producer of rare earth materials, serving global manufacturing supply chains across East Asia, Europe and North America. The company ensures traceability from mine to finished product through its fully integrated and secure supply chain. At the core of its operations is its high-grade, long-life Mt Weld mine in Western Australia.
Concentrates sourced from Mt Weld are processed at its Rare Earths Processing Facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan, Malaysia. Lynas has an expenditure-based contract with the U.S. DoD for the construction of a Heavy Rare Earths processing facility at Seadrift, TX.
Lynas achieved a milestone earlier this year with the production of Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) and Terbium Oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated Heavy Rare Earths (HRE) for Lynas, and also the first production outside China in decades.
Per its last reported results, Lynas produced 6,558 tons of NdPr in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), a 16% year-over-year increase, reflecting its optimized production strategy. REO production was 10,462 tons, down 4% year over year.
Lynas’ revenues in fiscal 2025 were up 20% to AUD 556.5 million ($362 million) as a result of increased NdPr production and sales. EBITDA was down 23% to AUD 101.2 million ($65.9 million).
The Lynas 2025 growth initiative (launched in 2019), designed to deliver increased capacity, enhanced efficiency and improved sustainability across its global operations, has essentially been completed. This included the production of separated HRE at Lynas Malaysia and the completion of the construction phase of the Mt Weld expansion project. The company also ramped up the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility and Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) reception facilities in Malaysia and finalized projects in Solvent Extraction and Product Finishing to deliver 10.5 kt p.a. of nameplate finished NdPr capacity.
With the conclusion of major capital projects, Lynas is now embarking on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity, and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 23 cents per share, narrower than the loss of 44 cents in fiscal 2024. The estimate for fiscal 2026 for MP Materials is pegged at earnings of 92 cents.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is 18 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 29 cents indicates 61% year-over-year growth.
Both the estimates for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Meanwhile, Lynas’ fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 estimates have moved up in the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below.
MP & LYSDY: Price Performance & Valuation
In the past three months, MP Materials stock has gained 13.4% compared with Lynas’ 63.5% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 20.49X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.45X. Lynas is also trading higher than the industry, but at a lower forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 19.44X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
MP and LYSDY stocks offer long-term strategic potential in the promising rare earth space. MP has been reporting upbeat production numbers and making investments in boosting production capacity, but elevated costs will continue to pressure earnings, with the current year likely ending in a loss. Meanwhile, Lynas appears better positioned, supported by strong growth projections and upward estimate revisions. Lynas is also expected to be a key beneficiary of the US-Australia deal, which might fast-track its growth plans.
Lynas has outperformed MP in terms of share price gains and offers a cheaper valuation. Overall, Lynas represents the more compelling buy for investors seeking exposure to rare earths.
Lynas currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) while MP Materials has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.